The Battle for Public Opinion

Keeping Score

The Battle for Public Opinion. A breakdown of all the events taking place is the fight for the presidency.

Let's take a look at all of the post-election events.

#1 Election Day - The media calls the state of Florida for Gore, then declare it "too close to call", then declares Bush the winner, then finally give up and go home.
The Spin Reps: The media shouldn't have called the state while the polls were still open in the panhandle. A lot of voters left the polls when they heard it was over. Dems: Damn, this thing is close.
Legal Edge: N/A Moral Edge: N/A Strategic Edge: BUSH - Bush can claim that people living in the Republican-leaning counties in the panhandle were discouraged from voting by this early call. This will help in later the war of "what ifs" that is waged by Gore in the coming weeks.

#2 Bush Wins The First Count of Florida.
The Spin Dems: A second recount is mandated by law. Let's see what happens. Reps: Go ahead. Count them again. Recounts rarely change the outcome of an election.
Legal Edge: N/A Moral Edge: Tie Strategic Edge: GORE - He already lost once. A recount can't hurt.

#3 All initial indications show that Al Gore is ahead in the nation-wide popular vote by about 200,000 votes out of 90 million votes cast.
The Spin Dems: Al Gore should have won - and we are going to do everything we can to make sure that the "will of the people" is carried out. Reps: Sure, he won the popular vote, but barely. A difference of 0.2% is hardly an overwhelming majority. And in the end, it doesn't matter. The only thing that really matters is the popular vote within each state - the electoral collage.
Legal Edge: BUSH - The only thing that matters is the Electoral College. Moral Edge: GORE - Gore can claim some degree of victory. Strategic Edge: BUSH - The only thing that matters is the Electoral College.

#4 Bush wins the recount in Florida.
The Spin Reps: We've counted twice, and won both times. It's over. Dems: Like hell it is.
Legal Edge: BUSH - Barring any further action from Gore, Bush has won. Moral Edge: BUSH - Two non-partisan, impartial machine counts has shown him to be the winner. Strategic Edge: BUSH - He simply has to hold his ground.

#5 Gore asks for a recount in 4 heavily Democratic counties (Nov. 9th)
The Spin Dems: We want to make sure every vote is counted. Reps: No, you just want to make sure every vote for Gore is counted.
Legal Edge: GORE - Any candidate may ask for a recount. Moral Edge: BUSH - If Gore is so concerned about "every vote being heard", why is he only asking for recounts in "Democratic" Counties? There were 32 counties in Florida - almost half of the state - that had a higher percentage of rejected ballots than any of the counties selected by Gore. However, these 4 counties supported Gore by a greater margin than any other in Florida- the top 4 out of 67 counties. The real reason Gore selected these counties should be obvious. (and is the reason he wins the next category...) Strategic Edge: GORE - When you count these electronic ballots by hand, you are going to find more votes, guaranteed. It may not be many, but you will definitely find more...not less. These additional votes will most likely be statistically similar to the rest of the votes in that precinct. That is to say, if the precinct voted 65% Gore, 35% Bush, the additional votes will probably match those percentages. (i.e. If 2000 extra votes were found, Gore would probably get about 1300 and Bush only 700, thereby giving Gore enough votes to win the state)

#5 Gore asks for a recount in 4 heavily Democratic counties (Nov. 9th)

The Spin
Dems: We want to make sure every vote is counted.

Reps: No, you just want to make sure every vote for Gore is counted.

Legal Edge:
GORE - Any candidate may ask for a recount.

Moral Edge:
BUSH - If Gore is so concerned about "every vote being heard", why is he only asking for recounts in "Democratic" Counties? There were 32 counties in Florida - almost half of the state - that had a higher percentage of rejected ballots than any of the counties selected by Gore. However, these 4 counties supported Gore by a greater margin than any other in Florida- the top 4 out of 67 counties. The real reason Gore selected these counties should be obvious. (and is the reason he wins the next category...)

Strategic Edge:
GORE - When you count these electronic ballots by hand, you are going to find more votes, guaranteed. It may not be many, but you will definitely find more...not less. These additional votes will most likely be statistically similar to the rest of the votes in that precinct. That is to say, if the precinct voted 65% Gore, 35% Bush, the additional votes will probably match those percentages. (i.e. If 2000 extra votes were found, Gore would probably get about 1300 and Bush only 700, thereby giving Gore enough votes to win the state)

#6 Bush doesn't ask for a manual recount in every county, nor does he ask for recounts in any other "close" states.
The Spin Reps: There is no reason to believe that a manual recount (in ALL counties) would differ significantly from the first two counts, so why bother. It will only cause MORE partisan bickering, more opportunities for fraud, and therefore, more lawsuits. We don't want to drag this thing on forever, and we don't want it to be decided by the courts. Dems: Bush can ask for recounts anywhere he wants. If he doesn't, that's just to bad for him. We're going ahead with our recounts to make sure the will of the people is heard.
Legal Edge: N/A Moral Edge: BUSH - It would be hypocritical for Bush to argue against Gore's recounts if he is requesting them too, so he decides against it. This move also keeps the legal battles from exploding all over the country, and limits the battle ground to Florida. Strategic Edge: GORE - Since bush won't be "finding" any more votes, the extra votes Gore will pick up in these 4 counties might give him a victory.

#6 Bush doesn't ask for a manual recount in every county, nor does he ask for recounts in any other "close" states.

The Spin
Reps: There is no reason to believe that a manual recount (in ALL counties) would differ significantly from the first two counts, so why bother. It will only cause MORE partisan bickering, more opportunities for fraud, and therefore, more lawsuits. We don't want to drag this thing on forever, and we don't want it to be decided by the courts.

Dems: Bush can ask for recounts anywhere he wants. If he doesn't, that's just to bad for him. We're going ahead with our recounts to make sure the will of the people is heard.

Legal Edge:
N/A

Moral Edge:
BUSH - It would be hypocritical for Bush to argue against Gore's recounts if he is requesting them too, so he decides against it. This move also keeps the legal battles from exploding all over the country, and limits the battle ground to Florida.

Strategic Edge:
GORE - Since bush won't be "finding" any more votes, the extra votes Gore will pick up in these 4 counties might give him a victory.

#7 19,000 ballots invalidated in Palm Beach.
The Spin Dems: Every vote should be counted! Reps: Big deal. 15,000 votes were thrown out in Palm Beach during the last election, and nobody complained about it back then. Statistically, it is just as likely for a democrat to screw up a ballot as a republican, so if you were to hand count the WHOLE state, it wouldn't matter. Yes every vote should count, but not just Democratic votes.
Legal Edge: BUSH - Ballots that aren't filled out correctly are thrown out. That's the way it is. There is no reason to treat Palm Beach country differently. Moral Edge: TIE - Gore can claim that he is trying to make sure that "every voice is heard", but it is obvious that he only wants to listen in an areas where it will help him win. Strategic Edge: GORE - The act of throwing these ballots out conjure up memories of the old south, where blacks were forcefully prevented from voting... although this issue has nothing to do about race. Machines aren't racists. But in the minds of a lot of people, this argument will make sense.

#7 19,000 ballots invalidated in Palm Beach.

The Spin
Dems: Every vote should be counted!

Reps: Big deal. 15,000 votes were thrown out in Palm Beach during the last election, and nobody complained about it back then. Statistically, it is just as likely for a democrat to screw up a ballot as a republican, so if you were to hand count the WHOLE state, it wouldn't matter. Yes every vote should count, but not just Democratic votes.

Legal Edge:
BUSH - Ballots that aren't filled out correctly are thrown out. That's the way it is. There is no reason to treat Palm Beach country differently.

Moral Edge:
TIE - Gore can claim that he is trying to make sure that "every voice is heard", but it is obvious that he only wants to listen in an areas where it will help him win.

Strategic Edge:
GORE - The act of throwing these ballots out conjure up memories of the old south, where blacks were forcefully prevented from voting... although this issue has nothing to do about race. Machines aren't racists. But in the minds of a lot of people, this argument will make sense.

#8 Bush sues to stop had recount.
The Spin Reps: If only selected precincts or counties are manually counted, the hand count will help the candidate favored in those areas. Plus, the process allows partisan officials to judge the "intent" of the voter, even when no clear vote is present, and therefore opens the door for fraud. Dems: Every vote should be counted. The Republicans are trying to suppress the voice of the minorities that live in Palm Beach.
Legal Edge: GORE - These selective recounts may be unfair, but they aren't against the law. Moral Edge: TIE - Bush is the first to take this thing in front of the courts, but it was warranted by Gore's actions. Strategic Edge: BUSH - If this action were successful, the election would be decided by the machine counts... Thereby making bush the winner.

#8 Bush sues to stop had recount.

The Spin
Reps: If only selected precincts or counties are manually counted, the hand count will help the candidate favored in those areas. Plus, the process allows partisan officials to judge the "intent" of the voter, even when no clear vote is present, and therefore opens the door for fraud.

Dems: Every vote should be counted. The Republicans are trying to suppress the voice of the minorities that live in Palm Beach.

Legal Edge:
GORE - These selective recounts may be unfair, but they aren't against the law.

Moral Edge:
TIE - Bush is the first to take this thing in front of the courts, but it was warranted by Gore's actions.

Strategic Edge:
BUSH - If this action were successful, the election would be decided by the machine counts... Thereby making bush the winner.

#9 U.S. District Judge Donald Middlebrooks refuses to halt manual recounts in Florida.
The Spin Reps: WAH!!! Dems: See... what we are doing IS legal.
Legal Edge: GORE - There isn't anything illegal about asking for recounts. Moral Edge: GORE - The judge agreed that Gore isn't doing anything illegal. Strategic Edge: GORE - More votes GOOOD!

#10 Florida's secretary of state announces she will not extend the 5 p.m. EST November 14 deadline for certifying election results.
The Spin Reps: Finally, the law is on OUR side.... (and finally, there is a a public official with some say in this matter that ISN'T a Democrat!) Dems: WAH!!! She is just an evil republican trying to thwart the will of the people.
Legal Edge: BUSH - Katherine Harris isn't making this up. It's the Law. Moral Edge: BUSH - Bush is ALSO trying to uphold the laws of Florida. Strategic Edge: BUSH - There's no way they're gonna finish the hand recounts in time.

#11 Volusia County and Al Gore file suit seeking to extend Tuesday deadline for certifying its results.
The Spin Dems: This is unfair! Katherine Harris is a republican! Reps: So... she is the first republican to have ANY say in this. Every other decision so far was made by Democrats, so THPTPTPT!!!! And besides - the law is the law.
Legal Edge: BUSH Moral Edge: BUSH - Bush is ALSO trying to uphold the laws of Florida Strategic Edge: BUSH - There's no way they're gonna finish the hand recounts in time.

#12 State will enforce a 5 p.m. EST deadline for certifying presidential votes. This was upheld by a county circuit judge in Tallahassee, Florida. (Nov. 14)
The Spin Reps: Even a Democratic judge agrees with us. Dems: It ain't over yet.
Legal Edge: BUSH Moral Edge: BUSH - A Democratic Judge agreed with Katherine Harris. The law really does say that she has to have the election results certified. Strategic Edge: BUSH - Bye-bye hand recounts!

#13 Katherine Harris asks counties to submit (in writing) their reasons for wanting to continue the hand counts. The only reasons she will accept are fraud and machine error. (Nov 15)
The Spin Reps: Katherine Harris is following the law. Dems: There are reasons for recounting besides the ones Katherine Harris will accept.
Legal Edge: BUSH Moral Edge: BUSH - The Democratic counties are unable to cite any valid reasons for a requiring more time to complete their hand counts. Instead, most of the counties admit that the only reason for continuing their recounts is because "the results of the manual recount could affect the outcome of this very close presidential election". Strategic Edge: BUSH - There is no reason to count the ballots over and over again.

#13 Katherine Harris asks counties to submit (in writing) their reasons for wanting to continue the hand counts. The only reasons she will accept are fraud and machine error. (Nov 15)

The Spin
Reps: Katherine Harris is following the law.

Dems: There are reasons for recounting besides the ones Katherine Harris will accept.

Legal Edge:
BUSH

Moral Edge:
BUSH - The Democratic counties are unable to cite any valid reasons for a requiring more time to complete their hand counts. Instead, most of the counties admit that the only reason for continuing their recounts is because "the results of the manual recount could affect the outcome of this very close presidential election".

Strategic Edge:
BUSH - There is no reason to count the ballots over and over again.

#14 Lawyers for Bush submit written arguments to the U.S. federal appeals court in Atlanta to end the recounts. The court decides that they don't have the power to interfere with a state election.
The Spin Dems: Good. Reps: We lost the case, but not because the Judge disagreed with our case. The judge simply thought that the federal government didn't have any grounds for interfering with Florida's election at this time.
Legal Edge: GORE Moral Edge: BUSH - Although the federal courts decided not to step in, they agreed that Bush has some "serious arguments". They didn't say that Gore's actions were right, just that they didn't have the authority to stop it. Strategic Edge: TIE - Gore gets the votes for now, but Bush can still appeal to the Supreme Court.

#15 After absentee ballots are counted, uncertified results show Republican George W. Bush leads Democrat Al Gore by 930 votes. However, some Democratic lawyers sent a memorandum to the counties that explained ways to have these votes thrown out. As a result, as many as 40% the ballots are rejected, mostly from military personnel.
The Spin Reps: We thought you said that you wanted "every vote to be counted"! Throwing out the ballots of military personnel defending our interest oversees ... SHAME on you! It isn't the soldier's fault that the military doesn't place postmarks on its mail. Dems: Huh? What memo? We would never... Oh, nevermind.
Legal Edge: N/A Moral Edge: BUSH - Bush was able to spin this off as more anti-military antics from the Clinton-Gore bunch... and at the very least it shows that Gore really isn't interested in making sure ALL the votes are heard. Strategic Edge: BUSH - Most of those rejected ballots get accepted anyway, and Bush picks up more votes - widening the gap even further.

#16 The 5pm Sunday deadline (set by the Florida Supreme Court) passes. The Florida Secretary of State officially certifies the election results and declares Bush the winner of Florida's electoral votes. (Nov 27)
The Spin Reps: It's finally over! We Won! Dems: Over?!? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!?.. HELL NO!! (The Germans?... sorry, I somehow wandered into a scene from "Animal House". My apologies.)
Legal Edge: BUSH - Before this point, Gore merely had to persuade the local boards to agree with him. Now that the vote has been certified, Gore bears the burden of proof in court to prove that the election was somehow flawed. Moral Edge: BUSH - Bush can claim himself the winner, yet again. Strategic Edge: BUSH - Bush has won, unless Gore can somehow pull a rabbit out of his hat.

#17 Thousands of voters complain about the "butterfly ballot" in Palm Beach County. People claim that the ballot caused them to mistakenly vote for Pat Buchanan instead of Gore. They are seeking a new election in the county, something Republicans say is illegal. Several voters file a lawsuit which calls for a new election.
The Spin Dems: If these people wouldn't have screwed up, Gore would have won the election. Reps: Statistically, it is just as likely for a Democrat to screw up a ballot as it is for a Republican. What are you saying?... Are you suggesting that Gore supporters are so dumb that they can't figure out a simple ballot? In any case, it doesn't matter. These ballots were approved before the election, and you can't go around changing the rules simply because you lost. Ballots similar to this one were used in hundreds of precincts around the country - Should we allow all of them to re-vote as well?
Legal Edge: BUSH - Voter stupidity is not grounds for throwing out an election. There are stupid people all around the country. There is no reason to treat the idiots in Palm Beach any differently. Moral Edge: BUSH - It's possible that some people confused by the ballot, but it is impossible for anybody to call this ballot a "vast right-wing conspiracy", since the ballot was designed by a Democrat, approved by a Democrat, and has been used throughout the country for years without any complaints. Bush can also point to the fact that most of this "outcry" for a new election was drummed up by Gore and his supporters. Nobody complained about it until after it was announced that Al Gore had lost the election - and after Gore hired a telemarketing firm to call Palm beach residents to ask if anybody had been "confused" by the ballot. Strategic Edge: GORE - While this argument hold no legal weight, it does hold some weight with the public since this argument allows Gore to say that he really won the election.

#17 Thousands of voters complain about the "butterfly ballot" in Palm Beach County. People claim that the ballot caused them to mistakenly vote for Pat Buchanan instead of Gore. They are seeking a new election in the county, something Republicans say is illegal. Several voters file a lawsuit which calls for a new election.

The Spin
Dems: If these people wouldn't have screwed up, Gore would have won the election.

Reps: Statistically, it is just as likely for a Democrat to screw up a ballot as it is for a Republican. What are you saying?... Are you suggesting that Gore supporters are so dumb that they can't figure out a simple ballot? In any case, it doesn't matter. These ballots were approved before the election, and you can't go around changing the rules simply because you lost. Ballots similar to this one were used in hundreds of precincts around the country - Should we allow all of them to re-vote as well?

Legal Edge:
BUSH - Voter stupidity is not grounds for throwing out an election. There are stupid people all around the country. There is no reason to treat the idiots in Palm Beach any differently.

Moral Edge:
BUSH - It's possible that some people confused by the ballot, but it is impossible for anybody to call this ballot a "vast right-wing conspiracy", since the ballot was designed by a Democrat, approved by a Democrat, and has been used throughout the country for years without any complaints.
Bush can also point to the fact that most of this "outcry" for a new election was drummed up by Gore and his supporters. Nobody complained about it until after it was announced that Al Gore had lost the election - and after Gore hired a telemarketing firm to call Palm beach residents to ask if anybody had been "confused" by the ballot.

Strategic Edge:
GORE - While this argument hold no legal weight, it does hold some weight with the public since this argument allows Gore to say that he really won the election.

#19 (Nov 28) It appears as though the Florida state legislature will appoint their own slate of electors, should this thing still be held up in the courts on Dec 12.
The Spin Reps: Sounds good to us. Bush won the election, so why should Florida be denied their electoral vote simply because Gore is tying this thing up in the courts. Dems: The will of the people is being thwarted. After all, we all know that Al Gore was the real winner.
Legal Edge: BUSH - The constitution says that "The electors shall be chosen by the legislature". Although it is customary for them to set up rules for a public election to determine the winner, it is not required that they do so. The legislature has the power to set up the rules for the election. And, if they feel that the rules have been violated, they have the constitutional power to simply pick the electors themselves. Moral Edge: Tie - Ignoring the popular vote is not a very "popular" thing to do, but the Republicans can easily brush this argument off by bringing up the fact that, since Bush has won every single count of the vote in Florida, they really are representing the "will of the people". If Al Gore holds this thing up in the courts until Dec 12, it is possible that every vote in the state of Florida will be ignored, and nobody (except Al Gore) wants that to happen. Every tally of the votes thus far has shown that Bush is the winner of Florida, so it's not as if the legislature is acting against the will of the people - they are simply making sure that people are heard, and I think most of the public won't have a problem with that. (Although you can be damn sure that the Democrats are going to be screaming bloody murder!) Strategic Edge: BUSH - If the legislature takes this course, there is nothing anybody can do about it legally. The constitution plainly gives the right of choosing electors to the legislature, and does not specify how they are to go about doing it. The only limit on this power rests with the voters of Florida. If the public believes that the Florida legislature is acting improperly, the voters can throw them out in the next election. But, as I said earlier, most of the public believes Bush is the rightful winner of this election. Basically, the only people that feel otherwise are the hard-core Democrats, and I don't any Republicans were expecting any of these people to vote for them anyway.

#19 (Nov 28) It appears as though the Florida state legislature will appoint their own slate of electors, should this thing still be held up in the courts on Dec 12.

The Spin
Reps: Sounds good to us. Bush won the election, so why should Florida be denied their electoral vote simply because Gore is tying this thing up in the courts.

Dems: The will of the people is being thwarted. After all, we all know that Al Gore was the real winner.

Legal Edge:
BUSH - The constitution says that "The electors shall be chosen by the legislature". Although it is customary for them to set up rules for a public election to determine the winner, it is not required that they do so. The legislature has the power to set up the rules for the election. And, if they feel that the rules have been violated, they have the constitutional power to simply pick the electors themselves.

Moral Edge:
Tie - Ignoring the popular vote is not a very "popular" thing to do, but the Republicans can easily brush this argument off by bringing up the fact that, since Bush has won every single count of the vote in Florida, they really are representing the "will of the people". If Al Gore holds this thing up in the courts until Dec 12, it is possible that every vote in the state of Florida will be ignored, and nobody (except Al Gore) wants that to happen.
Every tally of the votes thus far has shown that Bush is the winner of Florida, so it's not as if the legislature is acting against the will of the people - they are simply making sure that people are heard, and I think most of the public won't have a problem with that. (Although you can be damn sure that the Democrats are going to be screaming bloody murder!)

Strategic Edge:
BUSH - If the legislature takes this course, there is nothing anybody can do about it legally. The constitution plainly gives the right of choosing electors to the legislature, and does not specify how they are to go about doing it. The only limit on this power rests with the voters of Florida. If the public believes that the Florida legislature is acting improperly, the voters can throw them out in the next election. But, as I said earlier, most of the public believes Bush is the rightful winner of this election. Basically, the only people that feel otherwise are the hard-core Democrats, and I don't any Republicans were expecting any of these people to vote for them anyway.

Final Score Let's tally up the score.
Legal Battle Who has the law behind them? Bush - 11 Gore - 04
Moral Fight Who is doing the "Right Thing", and who is winning the battle for public opinion? Bush - 15 Gore - 07
Stategy Who actually has the upper hand? Bush - 13 Gore - 07
Overall Total Now let's add all of these up and see who is the winner. Bush - 39 Gore - 18 Looks like Bush wins again. Anybody want a recount?... I'm sure if you look hard enough you'll find that I've made some adding errors, but - just as in the real election - it is unlikely that those errors will effect the outcome. :)

     Yes, I know this is a very unscientific way of judging these events, but it does explain why most Americans (myself included) feel the way we do - That Bush won the election, and that Al Gore is trying to bend the law in order to steal the election. With the facts being as they are, it's hard to understand how anybody could feel differently.

     If anybody believes that I have misjudged any of these arguments, or that I have left any arguments out, please feel free to email your opinions me at orion1787@aol.com.

     If you think Al Gore really did win the election, I would love to hear you explain why you feel that way. But please, stick to the issue at hand. I don't want any messages complaining that Bush is an bumbling idiot or that Gore is a big fat liar - everybody already knows this. The election campaign is over. All we want to do is find out who the winner is. So please, try to limit your comments to the post-election events.